Cancer research: How to predict lung cancer in smokers

It is a known fact that smoking increases the chance of getting lung cancer, but this is a probability; the exact relation between a person's smoking and getting lung cancer is not known. A person who smokes often and heavily is more likely to get lung cancer (known fact), but the probability of getting lung cancer for a person who smokes 2 packs per day vs. a person who smokes 1 pack a day is not known. There is current research ongoing about how to actually identify the chance of a specific person (smoker) developing lung cancer. This article (link) talks about the research ongoing about whether a specific chemical in the urine of a smoker is a good predictor of whether a person is likely to develop lung cancer:

"A history of smoking has always been thought of as a predictor of lung cancer, but it is actually not very accurate. Smoking absolutely increases your risk, but why it does so in some people but not others is a big question," said Jian-Min Yuan, Ph.D., M.D., associate professor of public health at the University of Minnesota. NNAL has been shown to induce lung cancer in laboratory animals, but the effect in humans had not yet been examined.
Patients with a mid-range level of NNAL had a 43 percent increased risk of lung cancer, as compared to those with the lowest levels. On the other hand, those at the highest level had a more than two-fold increased risk of lung cancer after taking into account the effect of number of cigarettes per day, number of years of smoking, and urinary levels of cotinine on lung cancer risk. Besides, the researchers found that those with the highest levels of nicotine and NNAL had an 8.5-fold increase in the risk of lung cancer compared with smokers who had the lowest levels after accounting for smoking history.

Such research is very important, since it will help in determining lung cancer at an early stage among smokers, and maybe help in reducing the number of casualties and cancer afflicted people. Detecting cancers early is an important step in being able to successfully treat this disease.